Renters are entering a sharply divided market this spring: supply-rich Sun Belt metros are giving renters more leverage through lower prices and more rent specials, while tighter coastal and Northeast markets are pushing rents higher. The result is a national rental landscape that looks increasingly uneven, with the best strategy for renters depending less on the season and more on the city.
Whether you’re considering a move or bracing for a lease renewal, understanding where rents are rising and falling and how trends will impact your search can help you make more informed decisions in the evolving rental landscape.
Where Rents Are Rising
Renters in these areas are experiencing renewal shock. As they review their renewal offers or look for a new place to live, they’re seeing significantly higher prices than last year.
San Francisco
San Francisco’s tech industry has seen a new gold rush with the AI industry, with companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Nvidia headquartered in the San Francisco metro area. The AI boom has made San Francisco the epicenter of the tech industry, bringing thousands of jobs to the area and increasing the demand for housing.
This has increased prices all-around—the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the cost of all items in San Francisco increased 2.5% over 2025—but rents have particularly led to a higher cost burden. The average rent in San Francisco is $3,351 per month for a one-bedroom, an increase of 8.2% over last year. This is one of the largest metro-level increases in the country.
Rhode Island
Rent prices are high across the Northeast, but Rhode Island has seen especially stark increases in the past few years as high rents in Massachusetts price people out. Despite more rentals becoming available, inventory isn’t keeping up with the increasing demand. Rhode Island’s average rent is averaging 2.7% higher than last year, outpacing the state capital’s overall price increase of 2.4%. However, inventory spiked in 2025 and population growth slowed, pointing to a potential plateau in Rhode Island rents.
Hampton Roads, VA
Hampton Roads is a region in southeastern Virginia including Norfolk, Virginia Beach, and Newport News. As of May 2026, Norfolk’s average rent is 4.2% higher than last year, Virginia Beach’s average rent is 3.3% higher, and Newport News’ average rent is 3.1% higher. Rents in this region are rising faster than other costs; prices here increased by 2.4% over last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This comes after 2025 brought more lease-ups and fewer new rentals, shaking up the market after a supply surge in 2024. How long these rent increases last depends on the construction landscape through 2026, but construction in the Hampton Roads area is still stronger than last year.
Where Rents Are Dropping
Oversupply has been the theme in the Sun Belt for the past few years, and entire states have seen prices decline as the rental market struggles to recalibrate.
Texas
Cities like San Antonio, Austin, and Houston have all seen a surge in popularity among renters due to economic growth, and investors are trying to get ahead of the demand by building new apartment communities. This has resulted in more vacant units than renters looking for their next place, so property managers are lowering prices and offering more rent concessions to stay competitive. Rents across the state are 2.1% lower than last year, and San Antonio and Austin have seen the biggest declines.
Florida
Cities across Florida are catching up to pandemic-era demand, and the influx of new apartment communities has swung the pendulum in the other direction.
In 2020 and 2021, renters took advantage of remote work and flocked to Florida in search of beachside living and no state income tax. Coastal cities saw vacancy rates drop to record lows, and rents followed demand upward. As construction started to catch up in 2023 and 2024 and remote work dwindled, Florida began to see a surplus of rentals.
Rents across the state have dropped by 1.6% over the past year, but Gulf Coast cities like Fort Myers, Sarasota, and Tampa have experienced especially deep declines. Investors targeted these areas during the post-pandemic demand boom because they offered strong population growth and lower prices than Miami, but migration has slowed, creating the current state of high vacancies, low prices, and widespread rent concessions.
The Carolinas
Pandemic-era migration hit North and South Carolina, just like Florida. Cities across these states saw demand outweighing supply as construction projects halted, then experienced the opposite effect as a wave of supply overwhelmed the region.
But in addition to a supply-demand imbalance, investors in North and South Carolina have been anticipating rapid growth.
With a strong economy and plenty of job opportunities, Charlotte is poised to become a powerhouse city, and the influx in construction shows that investors agree. Renters are seeing the same story in Raleigh, Durham, and Greenville, where vacancy rates are rising as new apartment communities pop up, but rents are dropping fast.
Where Renters are Searching
Most searched cities
The five cities with the biggest quarter-over-quarter search increases were:
- Saint Petersburg, FL (+28.9%)
- Wilmington, NC (+26.2%)
- Charleston, SC (24.3%)
- West Palm Beach, FL (+19%)
- San Diego, CA (+18.7%)
Coastal towns gained popularity in the chilly start to 2026. Saint Petersburg, FL, led the way with a 28.9% increase in searches over the end of 2025.
According to Tampa Bay Business & Wealth, the job market in the Tampa-Saint Petersburg-Clearwater area is growing faster than in any other Florida metro area. Saint Petersburg’s quiet beaches and charming downtown area make for a great home for renters commuting to Downtown Tampa.
The five most-searched cities in the beginning of 2026 were:
- Chicago, IL (+16%)
- New York, NY (-4.8%)
- Los Angeles, CA (-3%)
- Houston, TX (+4.9%)
- Dallas, TX (+6%)
Chicago saw a 16% increase in searches from the end of 2025, positioning it to be a hotspot for summer moving season. New York’s search volume dropped, but still far surpasses the search volume of other big cities.
Least searched cities
The five cities with the biggest quarter-over-quarter search decreases were:
- Milwaukee, WI (-35.6%)
- Manhattan, NY (-12.1%)
- Columbus, OH (-8.5%)
- Santa Monica, CA (-7%)
- Oklahoma City, OK (-6.8%)
The number of searches for Milwaukee decreased by 35.6% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Brian Anderson, CoStar Group’s director of market analytics in Minneapolis, attributes part of this stark decrease to increased inventory: “Milwaukee absorbed its third-largest largest supply wave on record in 2025 [since the year 2000], and renters now have more options. This means less urgency to search, especially during a historically severe winter.”
Moreover, Milwaukee has a stagnating job market in a highly volatile national economy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment in the Milwaukee area dropped by about 10,000 between December 2025 and January 2026, marking the lowest employment and highest unemployment rate since 2021, and several WARN Act layoffs have been filed in the past few months.
“Economic uncertainty tends to freeze renters in place, reducing discretionary moves and the search activity that precedes them,” says Anderson.
The five least-searched cities in the beginning of 2026 were:
- Little Rock, AR (-2.9%)
- Saint Paul, MN (+4%)
- Santa Monica, CA (-7%)
- Syracuse, NY (+7%)
- Anaheim, CA (+3.3%)
While Los Angeles made the cut for the five most searched cities in the first quarter of 2026, both Los Angeles and Santa Monica saw a drop in searches on Apartments.com. Meanwhile, search volume increased in Anaheim, Long Beach, and Irvine, suggesting a potential attention shift toward Orange County.
"Orange County serves as a logical release valve for residents seeking to leave Los Angeles, and it's often preferable for newcomers to the region."
Jesse Gundersheim, Senior Director of Market Analytics in Orange County, CoStar Group
Catherine Yeh, CoStar Group’s director of market analytics in Los Angeles, says that the local economy and population decline are subduing LA’s rental market: “Limited job growth and elevated unemployment rates, exacerbated by the ongoing contraction of tech and entertainment sectors, have had a major impact on demand. Population decline and persistent affordability challenges are additional headwinds, with Los Angeles experiencing significant losses due to outmigration and reduced immigration.”
Despite deceleration, Los Angeles is still an economic powerhouse. Jesse Gundersheim, senior director of market analytics in Orange County, says that renters often see Orange County as a preferential living option to Los Angeles: “Orange County serves as a logical release valve for residents seeking to leave Los Angeles, and it's often preferable for newcomers to the region...Stadiums, concert venues, and museums are still easily drivable, while Orange County offers some relief from many of LA’s day-to-day pressures.”
How Market Trends Impact Renters
Rent burden
According to CoStar Group’s National Market Report, the national median annual income is $84,646. According to the Rent Affordability Calculator, a renter making $84,646 a year—about $7,050 monthly—should spend no more than $2,115 per month on rent, and a one-bedroom apartment at the current average rent of $1,641 per month would take up only 23.3% of the $7,050 median monthly income.
While the national rent-to-income ratio is balanced, it shifts state-to-state and city-to-city. With prices on the rise, many renters end up spending more than the suggested 30% of their gross monthly income on rent.
For example, Apartments.com reports that the median household income in New York City is currently $71,116. If a renter making that median household income rented a one-bedroom apartment in New York City at the current average rent of $4,104 per month, they would be spending about 69% of their income on rent. However, in more affordable markets like Kansas City, a renter making Apartments.com’s reported median household income of $64541 would only be spending 23% of their monthly income on rent for a one-bedroom apartment at the current average rent of $1,252 per month.
New York takes the title of the most unaffordable market for renters, with a rent-to-income ratio of 69.3%. Cities in Texas and the Midwest offer more affordable options, with rent-to-income ratios under 25%.
|
City |
Median Household Income |
Current Average One-Bedroom Rent |
Rent-to-income ratio |
|
$84,646 |
$1,641 |
23.3% |
|
|
$130,144 |
$2,378 |
21.9% |
|
|
$77,337 |
$1,630 |
25.3% |
|
|
$81,906 |
$1,387 |
20.3% |
|
|
$84,197 |
$3,536 |
50.4% |
|
|
$43,702 |
$1,633 |
44.8% |
|
|
$70,259 |
$2,994 |
51.1% |
|
|
$80,020 |
$1,853 |
27.8% |
|
|
$72,329 |
$1,470 |
24.4% |
|
|
$69,230 |
$2,043 |
35.4% |
|
|
$48,227 |
$1,141 |
28.4% |
|
|
$94,742 |
$1,299 |
16.5% |
|
|
$60,250 |
$1,168 |
23.3% |
|
|
$58,908 |
$1,403 |
28.6% |
|
|
$85,001 |
$1,622 |
22.9% |
|
|
$78,954 |
$2,276 |
34.6% |
|
|
$68,568 |
$1,270 |
22.2% |
|
|
$154,993 |
$3,795 |
29.4% |
|
|
$82,847 |
$1,735 |
25.1% |
|
|
$56,401 |
$1,184 |
25.2% |
|
|
$59,562 |
$1,123 |
22.6% |
|
|
$121,839 |
$2,924 |
28.8% |
|
|
$60,187 |
$1,304 |
26.0% |
|
|
$88,358 |
$3,261 |
44.3% |
|
|
$64,541 |
$1,252 |
23.3% |
|
|
$61,425 |
$1,281 |
25.0% |
|
|
$74,211 |
$1,834 |
29.7% |
|
|
$74,048 |
$2,183 |
35.4% |
|
|
$70,080 |
$1,514 |
25.9% |
|
|
$52,516 |
$2,230 |
51.0% |
|
|
$47,042 |
$1,208 |
30.8% |
|
|
$71,217 |
$1,415 |
23.8% |
|
|
$67,531 |
$1,677 |
29.8% |
|
|
$71,116 |
$4,104 |
69.3% |
|
|
$59,951 |
$1,578 |
31.6% |
|
|
$54,633 |
$1,778 |
39.1% |
|
|
$70,283 |
$1,303 |
22.2% |
|
|
$57,869 |
$1,416 |
29.4% |
|
|
$83,502 |
$1,521 |
21.9% |
|
|
$75,353 |
$3,436 |
54.7% |
|
|
$75,944 |
$1,383 |
21.9% |
|
|
$53,556 |
$1,442 |
32.3% |
|
|
$77,825 |
$1,566 |
24.1% |
|
|
$50,989 |
$1,148 |
27.0% |
|
|
$56,185 |
$1,072 |
22.9% |
|
|
$95,644 |
$2,391 |
30.0% |
|
|
$128,655 |
$3,351 |
31.3% |
|
|
$130,163 |
$2,731 |
25.2% |
|
|
$114,915 |
$2,092 |
21.8% |
|
|
$65,588 |
$1,641 |
30.0% |
|
|
$95,873 |
$2,258 |
28.3% |
National median household income data is based on CoStar Group’s National Market Report, and median household income is sourced from Apartments.com Area Guides. Median household income data is based on total metro area data, not renter-specific data. The average rent data is from Apartments.com Rent Trends pages.
Concession frequency
The national concession rate—the difference between advertised rent and actual rent paid after rent specials are calculated—is up to 2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than last year. Renters are seeing more generous concessions right now and are paying an average of 2% less than the advertised price once rent specials are calculated, as markets across the country try to fill more vacant units.
Where renters are finding the deepest concessions:
- Fort Myers, FL (5.3% concession rate)
- Asheville, NC (4.4% concession rate)
- Denver, CO (4.0% concession rate)
- Austin, TX (3.9% concession rate)
- Phoenix, AZ (3.8% concession rate)
Renters looking for a place in Fort Myers are finding the best deals right now; on average, renters are paying 5.3% less than the advertised price. This means that for an apartment listed at Fort Myers’ average one-bedroom rent of $1,528 per month, the average rent special in Phoenix would reduce a renter's effective rent to $1,447 per month.
What We’re Watching
Oversupply in the Sun Belt
While construction in many Sun Belt markets has cooled since the 2024 supply wave, construction activity remains hot across the region. With more rentals poised to enter the market soon and demand already struggling to keep up, Sun Belt cities may remain renters’ markets with declining prices and frequent rent concessions for the foreseeable future.
Increased oil prices
The cost of crude oil almost doubled between January and March, so renters may see increased utility bills heading into spring.
Proposed rent freeze in NYC
New York City’s government is considering freezing rent for rent-stabilized apartments to combat rising housing costs in the city.
There are about one million rent-stabilized apartments in New York, meaning that property managers for these rentals cannot raise rent past a certain percentage each year. This helps to combat the city’s notorious unaffordability by price gouging due to high demand.
However, the city is considering decreasing the increase limits to 0% for all rent-stabilized apartments, meaning that property managers would be prohibited from increasing rent at all. While the Rent Guidelines Board deliberates rent increase limits for 2026, New York’s average rent sits 1.2% higher than last year and 149% higher than the national average.
ROAD to Housing Act
The U.S. Senate passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with a substitute amendment on March 12 and now returns to the House of Representatives for reconciliation. This bill would ban large investors from buying single-family homes.
Methodology
The data in this report is sourced from CoStar Group’s Market Trend reports and Apartments.com’s Rent Trends pages. The median annual income data is based on citywide statistics, not renter-specific income.
